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Will bitcoin stay at $19,000? These metrics signal a change in trend

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Key facts:
  • The lower dominance of BTC and the supply of stablecoin indicate that the market may be impacted.

  • These predictions by two analysts come as the BTC is at an all-time low in volatility.

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The market for bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, which has been rather quiet for more than a month, may be close to initiating sharp price changes. This is what different specialists estimate, although there are differences of thought on whether it will be up or down.

According to Martuunn, an analyst at market explorer CryptoQuant, cryptocurrencies could experience a depreciation. This is what thinks because of the decrease in tranding volume that had bitcoin. After being the most traded currency on exchanges for a month, altcoins have begun to dominate last Saturday.

According to the scout’s records, 50% of the trading volume on the exchanges since that day has been generated by. altcoins. “Based on historical data, this is not good for the market,” the analyst said. He recalled that when these cryptocurrencies were listed on the exchange. much on the exchanges in the past, bitcoin suffered a collapse.

As an example, he pointed out that this has happened twice in the past year. On the one hand, from November 2021 to January 2022, with bitcoin falling from nearly $68,000 to $36,000. And on the other, from April 2021 to June 2022, falling from $47,000 to $20,000. He then warned that the current similarity of his domain to such times “worries him a bit.”

increase in the trading volume of altcoins on exchanges, in contrast to the trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As of the end of October, more than 50 percent of cryptocurrency trading is altcoin rather than bitcoin, according to recorded data. Source: CryptoQuant.

If bitcoin rises, it doesn’t mean a bullish reversal, analyst warns

Another CryptoQuant analyst, known as MAC_D, reported that “conditions for BTC upconversion should increase the total supply of stablecoin.” This rate has been steadily decreasing since crash of the earth moon and UST, according to the explorer’s records.

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The specialist believes that “the decrease in stablecoin issuance means that the movement of new investments into the cryptocurrency market is slowing down.” Therefore, he sees need to increase their supply.

The graph compares the decrease in the price of BTC with the supply of stablecois and the issuance of stable tokens.
The supply of stablecoin has been declining since the collapse of terra luna and UST. Source: CryptoQuant

In retrospect, he commented that in the bearish market cycle of 2018, the stable currencies began to be issued leading to an increase in the demand for cryptocurrencies. Since then, these stable tokens “have been used to buy BTC and have become the driving force behind the price increase,” he said.

In light of this, he warned that if prices were to rise in the absence of further stablecoin issuance, “it would be a short-lived technical increase.” In other words, it would not mean “a reversal of the upward cycle,” he said.

Thus, we could see increase or decrease in volatility in the short term, according to CryptoQuant’s estimates. But they do not yet predict the end of the bear market, just as they do not predict the end of the bear market. more analysis reported in CryptoNews. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, BTC is trading at US$19,300 and remains at historic lows in volatility.

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