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There is nothing to expect from Bitcoin until next year.

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The price of bitcoin has fallen 72% from the last all-time high and the question is again whether it has bottomed out in the current cycle. For traders and analysts @rektcapitalThe first cryptocurrency price floor will be recorded in this last quarter of the year.

The analyst points out that the price action has been weak in recent days, which is reflected in the fact that $20,000 has ceased to be a support for the price and has become part of the new resistance range. According to the specialist, the possible range for bitcoin’s floor would be between $16,985 and $23,467.

Among the reasons for this assumption, @rektcapital noted on Monday, September 19. on his Twitter account that bitcoin bottomed in 2015, 547 days before the next halving. In 2018, bitcoin bottomed 517 days before the third halving.

If a new bitcoin low is recorded between 517 and 547 days before the next bitcoin halving in April 2024, then such a low should occur in the last quarter of this year, says @rektcapital.

Bitcoin’s death cross would imply a further decline.

Although he cautions that historical data is unreliable in predicting future price action, @rektcapital refers to. in its last newsletter in the markets to what is known as the “crossroads of death“This is a bearish indicator of an asset’s price, which occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average (50D EMA, blue on the chart), crosses the 200-day moving average (200D EMA, black on the chart) to the downside.

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As can be seen on the chart, this bearish crossover took place in early January. On January 9 of this year, the day of the crossover, the price of bitcoin was $41,800, according to TradingView.

The analyst says that price pullbacks in previous bearish crossovers have ranged from -42% to -73%. While it is impossible to predict how far the price will fall, the worst-case scenario would involve a drop to the 11,000 level, says @rektcapital.

Today the Fed will announce a further rate hike, which the market expects to be 0.75%, although a 1% or 100 basis point hike is also being bandied about. This would be the largest rate hike since the early 1980s. If this happens, the price of bitcoin could enter a new bearish phase.

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