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November Crypto Technical Meeting



17176 is the closing price of BTC for this month of November. In this article I will review the movements of the last month, but I will also take a look at the macroeconomics. We will review the Bitcoin closing price, its dominance in the market, but also the DXY dollar indexes.

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC/USD pair in 1M log view (TradingView)

Many people were disappointed to see BTC close in the red, in fact the masses were still hoping to see a bounce from the 20K to break out. On the other hand, we did get to test the $15,000 area, which broke the monthly support at $19,300.

So here we are on a monthly logarithmic view of BTC/USD. We know that BTC usually bottoms around an 80% correction, which in our case is $13,900. Therefore, I have drawn a new long term channel that will give us a low around 80% around February (for those who want to know why this channel is relevant I encourage you to go watch our video explainer TikTok).

Knowing this, we might expect BTC to go down a bit in the coming months.

BTC dominance analysis

BTC-Domain in 1M (TradingView)

The November candle gives us very little indication of the direction of the equity. In fact, we are recording a hesitation candle (with a similar bullish/bearish wick) at our support. It should be noted that no bullish recovery occurs without the BTC returning to dominance. In fact, it leads the way during major market swings, and the exit from a bear market is part of it. Thus, to expect to see green again in the long term, it would be necessary to at least retest the 48% resistance.

Read also. A golden opportunity for incumbents? Solana’s analysis

Cryptocurrency capitalization

TOTAL Crypto + DXY (TradingView)

Here we are on Market Cap Crypto (TOTAL) in monthly view against the DXY dollar index (orange curve). We note that dollar declines are profitable for cryptocurrencies, as we have capital outflows from the dollar into risk assets like Bitcoin. Thus, we have prosperous rallies when the DXY falls and corrections when it returns to strength.

We currently have a nice correction in the DXY which opens up a good outlook in risk assets, however cryptocurrencies do not seem to be really benefiting from this yet.


To conclude I would say that cryptocurrencies are not really under the spotlight as they are not benefiting from the DXY falls. In fact, investors would rather put their money elsewhere than in digital assets, which is slowly bleeding the ecosystem. So we’ll have to keep a close eye on indices like BTC-dominance or TOTAL crypto to see when investors show up.

This analysis is in no way an investment advice, I encourage you to DYOR on your own.

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